George Bush vs. Warren Buffet on the Economy

In the last 24 hours I have heard George Bush say that there isn't a recession, its just a slowdown. Warren Buffett, the world's most famous investor, says the recession may be worse than feared. Which one do you think I believe?
I heard there has been a run on rice in some places, and some stores are limiting (rationing) sales of rice. Corn prices are at all time highs. Oil is at $120 a barrel, commodity prices are at all time highs. Under these circumstances, I think we all need to be a little cautious.
Living in Hawaii is expensive. I live on the cheap everyday. I save what I can. There are some new business opportunities on the horizon. I am simply waiting for news and information. I am pretty sure some big changes are on the way.